News & Commentary
AgriCharts Market Commentary
Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here
Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.
Corn futures are trading steady at midday. Weekly ethanol production was 5K barrels per day lower than the previous week, coming in at 954K bpd. Stocks of ethanol were up 700,000 at 18.6 million barrels after being surprisingly low last week. This looks like catch up. Trader talk is that South Africa raised its estimate for corn production this season by 0.9% to 14.02MMT. The head of Ukraine’s state weather forecasting center stated that Ukrainian corn production could decline by 6% to 29MMT this year because of military conflicts in eastern areas of the country.
Soybean futures are trading 6 cents lower to 7 cents higher. The debate continues whether current dry conditions are hurting the crop in the WCB. Cool temps are mititgating any moisture stress from what it might otherwise be. US Export inspections still show 39 million bushels needed to meet USDA forecasts for the year, but Census numbers are official and have been running larger than inspections. They are also released at least a month and a half later, with the marketing year total not likely to be released until mid-October.
Wheat futures are trading 3 to 6 cents higher at midday. Trader talk is that the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange lowered their estimate for planted wheat acres in Argentina from 1.1 M acres to 1.03M. South Africa lowered their planted wheat acres to 1.2M acres, down 4.3% from the previous year. Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of another 205,500 metric tons of wheat to Nigeria. Reuters reports that Egypt bought 175,000 MT of Russian wheat at its overnight tender for mid-September delivery. The US was not expected to be competitive due to freight costs.
Cattle futures are trading $0.75 to $1.02 higher at midday. Feeders are $1.65 to $1.70 higher. Wholesale beef prices are higher, with choice boxes up $1.69 at $263.03. The select cut out is up $2.47 at $261.50. The choice/select spread has narrowed to only $1.53 due to strong demand for the lower quality (and less expensive) Select product. Packers continue to receive significant returns from the byproduct credit, quoted at $16.31/cwt today. At last weeks estimated average live weight of 1316 pounds, that credit would be $214.63 per head! Cash trade is not expected until later in the week. Asking prices appear to be $168-170 in the south and $266-269 in the north.
Lean hogs are trading $0.72 to $0.25 lower at midday. The average pork carcass cutout value is $1.73lower at $129.40. Cash hog prices continue to be under pressure despite the steady tone in the cutouts. The packer wins in that situation. IA/MN area carcass base prices are $2.04 lower, the WCB hogs are $1.98 lower. ECB prices were not reported this morning due to confidentiality requirements.
Cotton futures are trading 65 points lower to 32 points higher at midday. Cert stocks were reported at 146,136 bales, with 10,945 decerts and 0 new certs. The Cotlook A Index is down 0.60 at 80.40. China cotton futures on the Zhengzhou exchange for January delivery were down 0.34%. Grower to business sales were reported at 729 bales.