AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures closed solidly higher, picking up gains of more than 7 cents mostly on the reality of a relatively late harvest.  The slow pace feeds ideas of a long harvest and spotty availability for corn users.  According to USDA, the national crop only 31% harvested, vs. the 5yr average of 53% for this date. Harvest progress is 20 points behind the 5yr average in both IN and IL.  Iowa is 34 points behind its normal harvest pace, and MN is lagging its 5yr average by 31 points.  As for maturity, MI and WI are both have about 25% left to mature, which puts them 13 points behind for this week of the year.  The USDA crop condition rating was UNCH from last week with the Brugler500 Index at 389.  The dollar was up nearly 400 points on the day.

Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.56, up 7 3/4 cents,

Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.69 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents,

May 15 Corn closed at $3.78 1/2, up 8 cents

Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.85 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybeans closed with double digit gains and November settled 20 cents higher.  Dec meal futures were up $13.50 on the day.  The gains can be attributed to concerns over wet weather delaying harvest, as well as an overall friendly attitude toward the grain complex in the market today.  USDA estimates that the national harvest is about 13 points behind the 5yr average.  IL is only 37% complete vs 66% average, while IN is 31% complete vs. 62% average.  ND and SD are actually the farthest ahead of normal, with ND 12 points ahead, and SD 11 points ahead of their respective 5yr averages.  Weekly export inspections were a strong this week, at 18% larger than the same week last year. Total year to date export inspections are 123% of a year ago.

Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.64 1/4, up 20 cents,

Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.71 3/4, up 19 1/2 cents,

Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $9.79, up 18 3/4 cents,

May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.87, up 18 cents,

Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $342.90, up $13.50,

Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at $31.76, up $0.06

Wheat

Wheat futures closed with gains of 1 to 8 cents on the day.  Front month contracts in all three classes were rallying together, but closed 4 to 6 cents off of their session highs.  CHI wheat was the strongest with the front three contracts breaking through to trade at their highest levels since Sept. 11 earlier this morning.  The US winter wheat crop is now estimated to be about 76% planted.  Emergence is 6 points ahead of normal at 56%.  Colorado is done planting, and is shown as 83% emerged.  Nebraska is almost done, and 89% of its crop is out of the ground already.  Gulf barge bids for October CIF SRW wheat jumped a nickel in the Midday report, at +95 cents over December futures.   

Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.19 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.02 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.69, up 2 1/4 cents

Cattle

Cattle futures finished the day firmly into the red after October posted a new all time high for the front month contract again this morning.  December also posted a new high earlier in the session at $169.75, but ended the day with a loss of nearly a dollar.  Feeders were lower on higher grain prices (and likely some trader fatigue) after four days of choppy trading at or near the daily limits.  The CME index is at $240.80, down $1.04.  Cash cattle trade was quiet without enough sales reported for a market trend.  Choice boxed beef prices were flat in the PM report, Select boxes were down 24 cents.  Estimated week to date slaughter is 1K head larger than it was by this time last week, and 19K head smaller than a year ago.  

Oct 14 Cattle closed at $166.550, down $1.350,

Dec 14 Cattle closed at $167.050, down $0.975,

Feb 15 Cattle closed at $166.050, down $0.850,

Oct 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $238.950, down $1.800

Nov 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $233.925, down $2.900

Jan 15 Feeder Cattle closed at $228.250, down $2.825

Lean Hogs

Hog futures closed mixed, with a 70 cents loss in the December contract, and a 27.5 cent gain in the April contract.  The CME Index is down $1.43 at $106.78. The USDA average pork carcass cutout value was lower again today, down $2.42 at $104.04, showing large losses for the Loin and Picnic cuts.  The average carcass base price was $1.56 lower in the ECB, $1.45 lower in the WCB, and $1.02lower in the IA/MN marketing area.  Estimated week to date slaughter is 858 K head, 3K head larger than a week ago, and 5K head smaller than a year earlier.

Dec 14 Hogs closed at $88.450, down $0.700,

Feb 15 Hogs closed at $86.075, down $0.325

Apr 15 Hogs closed at $87.250, up $0.275

Cotton

Cotton futures closed higher on the day.  December picked up 50 points on the session, despite inherent pressure from the US Dollar being up around half a percent today.  November crude oil futures were slightly higher.  Cotton futures on the Zhengzhou exchange were mixed from .10% lower to .36% higher.  USDA said in its weekly crop progress report that harvest is about 3 points behind the 5yr average.  As of Sunday, 86% of the crop has bolls opening, compared to the 5yr average of 90%.  Overall the condition rating of the entire US cotton crop was slightly lower than it was last week.  The Cotlook A index is at 69.70, down 0.35 from yesterday.    

Dec 14 Cotton closed at 62.79, up 50 points,

Mar 15 Cotton closed at 61.91, up 21 points

May 15 Cotton closed at 62.84, up 16 points

Jul 15 Cotton closed at 63.78, up 12 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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