News & Commentary
AgriCharts Market Commentary
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Corn futures finished the session limit-up in the July and September contracts. Dec15 futures hit $4.32 1/4. The quarterly reports released at 11AM CDT had June 1 stocks in all positions about 215 mbu smaller than the average pre-report guess from the trade. MAM disappearance was 3.3 bbu, up 4.4% from a year earlier. The new crop corn acreage figure was the lowest since 2010, coming in at 88.897 million acres, down about 302K from the March 31 intentions, and below the average pre-report trade estimate. Smaller than expected stocks and smaller than expected acreage, combined with declining crop condition ratings to give the bulls encouragement to run.
Soybean futures posted gains of more than 53 cents as far out as the January contract. USDA reported US Soybean stocks as of June 1 were 625 mbu; about 6.7% below the average pre-report trade estimate of 670 mbu. On farm stocks were up 126% year/year, but off farm stocks were only up 28% from a year earlier. Planted acreage came in at a record high 85.14 million acres; below trade expectations, but still about 500,000 more than the March intentions report. AR, KS, MO will be resurveyed for planted acreage, with the updated results scheduled to be made available in the August crop report. Dec15 bean meal added $19.20 today, and Dec15 bean oil was 66 cents higher.
Wheat futures marked another solid up day for all three major classes. July15 SRW futures have gained more than a dollar per contract in the last seven trading periods. USDA had both the acreage and the June 1 wheat stocks figures larger than the average pre-report trade estimates. The planted acreage came in at 56.079 million acres, up about 712,000 acres from the March report, but down 4.4% year/year. Wheat stocks in all positions were 753 mbu; near the higher end of estimates, and well above the average guess of 718 mbu. USDA will be forced to reduce feed use and export use in the July WASDE report to match this stocks figure. Stats Canada reported Canadian wheat acreage at 24.1 million acres, down 700,000 acres from its previous estimate, and 500,000 acres below most analyst projections.
Live cattle futures posted losses from $1.10 in April 2016 to $1.825 in the June15 contract as it went off the board today. Feeder cattle futures suffered heavy losses on sharp gains in feed prices. The Sep/Oct/Nov contracts were all limit down on the session. Cash cattle activity was light with just a few head changing hands in the IA/MN area that were 65-80% choice. Wholesale prices were mixed with choice boxes averaging 49 cents lower, and select boxes 71 cents higher. The Choice/Select spread is down to $3.38, the tightest since March 25. Week to date slaughter is estimated at 227,000 head, up 6K from a week earlier, but 7K smaller than the same period a year earlier.
Lean hog futures were sharply higher on the session with the August contract up $2.675 on the day. The CME Lean Hog Index was off 49 cents at $77.64 for the 6/26 average. Pork carcass cutout prices were $1.47 lower in the PM report, averaging $81.44/cwt. All of the cuts were lower today, with the rib cut losing the most, of $5.19/cwt. Cash hog base prices were 13 cents higher in the IA/MN marketing area, and 3 cents higher in the WCB. ECB prices were not reported, but the national weighted average was up 30 cents from Monday. Week to date slaughter is 849,000 head, which is 10,000 head larger than a year earlier.
Cotton futures finished the session with gains of 48 to 71 points following the USDA reports released at 11 AM CDT. US planted acreage came in just under 9 million acres, which was below the average pre-report trade estimate, and down about 5.78% from the March intentions. If realized, that would be the smallest area planted to cotton in the US since 1983. USDA noted that TX would be re-surveyed for cotton planted acreage with the results of the survey to be available in August. The USDA put the AWP for this week at 50.22, with the LDP/MLG at 1.78 cents. The Cotlook A Index is sharply higher, up 185 points to 74.35. Current certified stock is 167,565 bales, with 872 new certified bales, 13,694 decertified bales, and 365 awaiting review.