News & Commentary
AgriCharts Market Commentary
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Corn futures are trading mostly 6 or 7 cents lower on the day, despite relatively strong export sales and strong ethanol production reported this week. Traders were looking for USDA to show weekly Export Sales for last week at 500,000 MT to 750,000 MT. USDA put the actual figure this morning at 944,900 MT, with unknown the largest buyer. Another 110,000 MT were sold to Costa Rica, announced this morning under the daily reporting system. The US Dollar Index is sharply higher today, and front month ethanol futures are more than a nickel lower on the session.
Soybean futures are sharply lower on the day in what looks like week/month-end profit taking on a day with historically light volume. Trade ideas for the USDA export sales report this morning had been in the 550,000 MT to 990,000 MT range and they came in at 1.487 MMT; hard to call that a bearish number. Soybean meal export sales were net-negative for 2014/15, but 2015/16 bookings for 174,300 MT made for a net 152,000 MT in new meal sales for the week ending November 20. Bean meal shipments reported this week were huge. The CME will close early today, at 12 pm CST for grains.
Wheat futures are sharply higher again today in all three major classes, despite the sharply higher US Dollar Index. Weekly export sales reported this morning were near the upper end of the range of trade expectations at 469,500 MT. The IGC lowered its world wheat production estimate for 2014/15 by 1MMT, but there is talk in the market that 2015/16 world wheat production could easily be lower than this year, while consumption is still expected to grow year over year. EU export licenses issued year to date are 12 MMT vs. 11.2 MMT at this point last year.
Cattle futures mixed on the session, with the front two months losing more ground and some strength in the late Spring and Summer contracts. Feeders are higher on the day. With the January contract trading more than a dollar higher. Wholesale beef prices are higher again today, with Choice boxes up 2 cents and Select up $1.89. Cash cattle traded in volume Wednesday at $172-173, with limited activity in the north at $267.00. Most of the asking prices in the north are still above $270. USDA reported net weekly beef export sales through November 20 totaled 11,300 MT.
Hog futures are trading mostly lower on the day with the December contract off more than 32 cents. USDA reported net weekly pork export sales for last week were 22,900 MT, vs. 14,228 MT the prior week. This week included 4000 MT booked for 2015. The pork carcass cutout value was $1.11 lower this morning, on very light volume. The CME lean hog index is 11 cents higher at $88.85 for the 11/24-25 average.
Cotton futures are trading 8 to 51 points higher this morning. Despite the sharply higher US Dollar Index. Weekly export sales for 2014/15 were reported at a marketing year high this morning, coming in at 305,700 RB, with another 10,400 RB booked for next year. Exports for the week were a marketing year high as well. Pima sales were reported at 4800 RB. The Cotlook A Index was up 40 points at 66.85 on Thursday.