AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn futures are currently trading 2 to 3 cents lower this morning.  They were unable to sustain early gains and closed 1/2 to 1 1/4 lower in “buy the rumor, sell the fact” action following a bullish weekly export sales report on Thursday. USDA reported that sales for the week totaled 1.4349 MMT, but old crop sales were disappointing @ 291,500 MT. The NWS 8-14 day forecast continues the much below normal temps for the Corn Belt through at least August 7.  That is great for pollination, but if this keeps up you are going to need a lot of propane or NG this fall. Fairly broad areas of the Corn Belt are below 100% of normal precip for July, but are drawing on ample subsoil moisture from June. The Allendale brokerage firm released a 174.1 bpa national average yield guess yesterday


Soybean futures are currently 7 to 12 cents lower this morning.   USDA reported much larger net export sales last week than the trade expected, with old crop @ 226,700 MT, and the new crop total @ 2.451 MMT. The new crop price finally got cheap enough for China to step in and buy big (1.2835 MMT). Overall US 2014/15 export commitments for beans are ahead of year ago by 0.7 MMT. Old crop FOB basis was up sharply earlier in the week, reflecting a need to get some beans past the crush plants to the port. South American producer selling rose sharply on the rally yesterday. 


Wheat futures are trading steady.   The Spring Wheat Tour projected average yield of 48.6 bpa, an all time record. The 5 year average for the group is 44.7 bpa. They projected durum yield at 36.6 bpa. USDA reported that net weekly sales through July 17 totaled 443,200 MT.  The total was comfortably within the range of estimates, i.e. no bullish surprise. Japan bought 95,600 MT from all sources in the weekly MOA tender. Australia is expecting current dry weather in the eastern part of the country to last another 60-90 days, affecting wheat and other crops.    


Cattle futures are currently trading $0.50 to $0.85 higher.  Bouts of pre-report profit taking are likely with the COF report this afternoon. The average trade guess for July 1 On Feed is at 98.11% of year ago. Marketings are expected to be about 98%. The CME Feeder index was $2.34 higher at $212.98. Wholesale beef prices were SHARPLY higher yesterday, with Choice boxes up $2.97 at $255.56 and Select up $4.13 at $252.84.  Week to date slaughter of 458,000 head is off 1,000 from last week, but down 5.5% from last year. Cash cattle were SHARPLY higher, with cash trades at $162 up $6 or more from last week. Dressed sales have been reported at $259-262.00.  

Lean Hogs

Lean hogs are trading $0.35 to $0.55 lower this morning after posted triple digit losses yesterday. The average pork carcass cutout value was $1.29 lower at $131.31, with continued pressure on the belly primal ever since the Cold Storage report revealed unusually large June 30 belly inventories.  The CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.53 at $132.04.  Estimated week to date hog slaughter from USDA is 1.558 million head vs. 1.596 million a year ago. Cash hog prices were mixed. The IA/MN area carcass base prices were up $1.18, but the ECB was lower.


Cotton futures are trading 43 to 60 points lower this morning after triple digit losses on Thursday. Volume jumped with the new selling (technically bearish). Estimated volume was 28,400 contracts vs. 8,912 yesterday. USDA reported net weekly export sales of US cotton for last week totaled 373,200 RB, including 3,700 RB of upland.  2013/14 sales of Upland cotton were net negative by 1,900 RB due to cancellations and rollovers. The USDA marketing year for cotton ends July 31. Any unshipped sales at that point will be applied to 2014/15 outstanding sales. This Export Sales report was through July 17.  Cert stocks dropped to 182,731 bales, the smallest since February. 

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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