AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn futures are trading steady to a penny higher.   Preliminary OI was down 8,181 contracts, defining the rally as short covering. The CME announced daily trading limits for corn futures will be decreased from 40 cents to 35 cents on May 1.  The new limits will be in effect until November.  Today the trade will we be focused on the weekly EIA report which due out later this morning.    Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 240,000 MT of corn to Mexico during the 2014/2015 marketing year.  South Korea’s KFA group was said to have purchased 60,000 MT of optional origin corn.  The heavyweight states of IL, NE, IA, & IN were each reported at less than or equal to 5% complete planted through Sunday. A number of planters were running in western IA on Tuesday. Missouri was reported at 26% planted, vs. 9% the previous week and the 5 yr average of 12%.


Soybean futures are trading a penny higher to 6 cents lower.   Preliminary OI was down 6,591 contracts.   Trader talk is that China may be looking to sell up to 3 MMT of soybeans from their reserve beginning in early May. The CME announced daily trading limits as of May 1 for soybean futures will be increased from 70 cents to $1.00.  The variable limits will be effective until November.  Argentina Soybean harvest is now said to be around 18% completed.  


Wheat futures are trading 2 to 5 cents lower.   Preliminary OI was up 1,042 contracts.  Japan is tendering for around 108,000 MT of wheat.  After the close on Monday, USDA reported Washington was at 65% planted vs. 46% the previous week and the 5 yr average of 55%.  Idaho is currently 79% planted vs. 56% the previous week and the 5 yr average of 48%.   The CME announced daily trading limits as of May 1 for CBOT Wheat futures will be decreased from 60 cents to 45 cents.  These limits will be in effect until November.   Oklahoma is confirming more freeze damage from the prior dip into the teens. 


Cattle futures are trading $0.25 to $0.75 higher.  Preliminary OI was up 712 contracts yesterday, light new buying. Week to date slaughter is 14K head less that last week, and 25K head less than last year. Wholesale beef prices are higher with choice boxes up $2.15 at $231.21 while select boxes were up $1.55 at $219.62.  The choice/select spread is at $11.58.  In the Tuesday USDA Cold Storage report USDA announced beef in cold storage at 404.754 million lbs on March 31, which is down 20.82% from the 511.233 million lbs figure in 2013. The total was 1% smaller than last month. The monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday.  April 1 inventory is expected to be 100.4% of year ago. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $1.44 at $177.13. 

Lean Hogs

Lean Hogs are trading $0.35 to $0.52 lower.   Preliminary OI was up 954 lots yesterday. Estimated week to date slaughter was reported at 684,000 head compared to 792,000 head last week, and 836,000 for the same period last year.  The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $1.21 to $119.68.  The pork carcass cutout value was $2.33 lower at $117.09.   The volatile belly primal was the weakest, down $10.22 at $152.87.  Carcass based prices from the IA/MN area were $0.10 higher, while values from the ECB were not reported. Values from the WCB were down $0.28. The USDA Cold Storage report showed pork in cold storage at 575.223 million lbs Mar 31, which is down 11.20% from the 647.784 million lbs figure in 2013. Pork stocks were also down 12% from February, indicating that the trade has been unsuccessful in trying to build a buffer for summer. 


Cotton futures are trading 73 to 89 points lower.  Outside markets in the US helped provide a positive influence yesterday with the S&P 500 futures up 10 handles at 1875.   The US dollar index was slightly weaker. ICE Certified stocks were reported @ 292,117 bales, with 7,742 new certs, 0 decerts and 4,296 bales awaiting review.  USDA reported that 9% of the US cotton crop is planted vs. 10% last year and the 5 year average of 12%. 

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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