AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn futures are trading a penny lower across the board this morning.   Funds were estimated to have been net sellers of around 4,000 corn contracts yesterday. The market could not build a rally on solid new crop export sales yesterday. The US Dollar index keeps moving higher, working against higher US grain prices.  The IGC raised its forecast for global production in 2014/15, which also kept pressure on the market.  The updated forecast of world corn production was for 969 million tonnes, up six MMT from the previous projection.  The current estimate from the USDA is at 980.96 MMT, and its global consumption estimate is at 966.33 MMT.   


Soybean futures are trading 8 to 10 cents lower.  Funds were estimated to have been net buyers of roughly 1,000 lots of soybeans on the day.  Out of the last 10 days, the front month Aug 14 contract has posted 8 up days.  Combined old and new crop weekly export sales of 1.456 MMT, were bullish as the trade had only been expecting 900,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.  Soybean meal bookings were also larger than the trade was expecting with the 14/15 bookings published at 707,400 MT, more than double of any week this year for the next marketing year sales. 


Wheat futures are trading 2 to 4 cents higher.   Funds were estimated to be net buyers of around 2,000 lots of CBOT wheat. The IGC raised its global wheat production forecast to 702 million, which is up 3MMT from a previous estimate; the July WASDE report had total world production at 705.17 MMT. The global consumption figure is close behind at 699.92 MMT, down from 705.52 in 2013/14.  USDA published an export sales figure that was well above trade expectations yesterday, putting the actual figure at 801,000 MT.  


Cattle futures are trading $0.95 to $1.35 lower.  Wholesale beef prices lost some steam, but choice boxes were still higher on the day, up 74 cents, pushing to yet another record high at $263.66. Select boxes slipped 23 cents lower, averaging $260.60.  Both Choice and Select boxes gained more than 3% from Thursday to Thursday.  Week to date estimated slaughter is 7K head less than last week, and 33K head less than the same period a year ago.  Cash cattle trades are expected to surface today. The last established market was last week with live sales mostly between $162 and $166, and dressed sales were around $255 - $257. USDA reported weekly exports for beef at 17,300 MT.

Lean Hogs

Lean hogs are trading $0.30 to $0.50 higher.    Week to date estimated slaughter is 14K head larger than a year ago, and 45K head larger than last week.  USDA reported weekly pork export sales at 6,900 MT for the week ending July 24.  The average pork carcass cutout value was $1.20 lower yesterday at $129.03.   IA/MN area carcass base prices ended the day $0.42 higher and WCB hogs averaged $0.18 higher, but the ECB hogs were down $0.97. 


Cotton futures are trading 55 to 61 points lower.  The outside markets were in a sea of red yesterday.  The Dollar index is higher again against the Euro, and crude oil is down again this morning. USDA reported weekly export sales for cotton at 260,400 RB, including 260,100 RB of Upland and 300 RB for Pima.  Cert stocks were reported at 136,608 bales, with 9,528 decerts and 0 new certs. 

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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